(AP Photo/Matt Rourke) Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman
(AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

A new Monmouth University poll released Wednesday shows the Democratic primary for United States Senate has a clear front-runner: Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman. The Republicans, meanwhile, have a tight three-way race for the nomination.

In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate:

  • John Fetterman garnered the support of 44% of poll respondents while Congressman Conor Lamb earned 23% and legislator Malcolm Kenyatta earned 14%
  • Fetterman and Lamb both enjoy relatively high favorability ratings — 81% and 51% respectively
  • Fetterman has a name recognition of 81% to Lamb’s 65% and Kenyatta’s 43%

In the Republican field:

  • Mehmet Oz garnered support from 20% of poll respondents, investment consultant David McCormick earned 16%, and political commentator Kathy Barnette earned 12%
  • The remaining four Republican primary candidates failed to register in double-digits
  • Oz and McCormick (80%) have high name identification, 92% and 80% respectively
  • McCormick has a 51% favorable rating to Oz’s 48% favorability and Barnette’s 37%

The takeaway:

  • If this poll is truly representative of the Democratic electorate in Pennsylvania, the party appears poised to select John Fetterman as its nominee for U.S. Senate
  • The race for the Republican nomination is anything but clear, with the coveted Trump endorsement, which Oz secured, seeming to have little influence over Republican primary voters
  • “If Dr. Oz thought Trump’s seal of approval was going to lock this nomination up for him, he was mistaken. It may help Oz on the margins, but it doesn’t completely erase his negatives. And other candidates have earned their Trumpian bona fides with Republican voters,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute

Pennsylvania primary voters head to the polls in just a few weeks on May 17.