Support for PA Republicans Plummets in New Post-Roe Poll

By Brett Pransky

June 30, 2022

According to a new survey conducted by Public Policy Polling, Pennsylvania swing district Republican Brian Fitzpatrick will lose his seat in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District if voters in the district become aware of his anti-choice stance on abortion.

While the radical right is simply crowing about the Supreme Court ruling that overturned Roe vs. Wade, most Pennsylvania Republicans are going quiet on the subject. And there appears to be a good reason for their silence. Anti-choice policies are unpopular in the Keystone State, especially in swing districts.

According to a new survey conducted by Public Policy Polling, Pennsylvania swing district Republican Brian Fitzpatrick will lose his seat in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District if voters in the district become aware of his anti-choice stance on abortion.

The poll was conducted on June 24, just after the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe vs. Wade was handed down. It consisted of two parts. First, voters were asked a general question about whether they supported Republican Brian Fitzpatrick, the incumbent in the race, or his Democratic opponent, veteran and former Apache helicopter pilot Ashley Ehasz.

Initially, voters preferred the incumbent by seven points (45% to 38%)

However, once voters learned of Fitzpatrick’s anti-abortion views, support for his opponent surged, swinging a full 17 points and giving Democrat Ashley Ehasz a ten point advantage (47% to 37%).

While this swing is certainly an indicator of how people feel about Roe, and the betrayal voters feel now that Roe has been overturned, polling has never been an exact science. 

The timing of the poll certainly played a role in the results, but Republicans all over Pennsylvania seem to be behaving as if their key issue is about to backfire on them. Few are reachable for comment, and Republicans in competitive districts have said very little about the ruling, pivoting instead to non-stop talk of inflation.

If the anger over the partisan court holds and drives turnout, it is certainly possible that Republican legislators in Pennsylvania and across the country could be defeated in November. But that outcome is by no means a certainty.

This poll is a glimpse of what could be, but far from a prediction of what will be. But it also tells us that voters are upset about the overturning of Roe, and if informed, they will vote that anger.

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