Key Pennsylvania races to watch in 2026

Pennsylvania Democrats have the opportunity to build on their 2025 Election Day successes in the midterms. Here’s a look at some important races that’ll determine the future of the commonwealth.

Now that 2025 is in the rearview mirror, all eyes will be focused on Pennsylvania in 2026 with important races up and down the ballot.

This past November, Democrats handily defeated a Republican-led effort to upend control of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court while picking up seats on the Pennsylvania Superior and Commonwealth courts. 

Those victories didn’t just stop at the state level either. Democrats made important gains in counties and regions President Donald Trump easily won during the 2024 election. 

With Democrats feeling hopeful about a rebound in the 2026 midterm elections, here’s a preview of what to look out for in the new year. 

Josh Shapiro v. Stacy Garrity  

After defeating State Sen. Doug Mastriano by 15 points in 2022, Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is looking to run it back against Republican Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity in 2026. 

Pennsylvania voters view Shapiro as one of the most popular governors in recent state history, and he has maintained high approval ratings throughout his first term in office. 

A recent Franklin and Marshall poll found that 29% of Republicans have an excellent or good view of Shapiro’s job performance as governor. 

On the other side of the ticket sits Garrity, who was recently elected to her second term as state treasurer. Republicans endorsed Garrity early in the campaign process in an attempt to dissuade potential challengers, like Mastriano, from running in the primary. 

During the budget stalemate, Garrity made her presence known by floating loans to county governments so Pre-K, Head Start, and domestic violence support programs remained operational. 

The Big Four 

Democrats, nationally, are looking at four key congressional races in Pennsylvania in an effort to retake the US House during the midterm elections. 

Democrats believe they have a chance to defeat US House Reps. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lehigh) and Rob Bresnahan (R-Luzerne), who were just elected in 2024, as well as US House Reps. Scott Perry (R-York) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks). 

Axios reported that Shapiro recruited candidates to run in these four seats in an attempt to bolster his support for a potential presidential campaign in 2028.

Expanding the Pennsylvania House Majority

After taking the Pennsylvania House for the first time in over a decade in 2022, Democrats successfully defended their one-seat majority in 2024. 

Now, they are looking to build upon that slim majority in the 2026 election. 

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is looking to invest $50 million in state legislative contests around the country, and some of that money will be used to defend and expand the Pennsylvania House majority. 

Flipping the Pennsylvania Senate? 

Flipping the Pennsylvania Senate and securing a legislative trifecta may be a longshot for Democrats in 2026.

Republicans currently hold a 27 to 24 majority in the chamber, but there are four incumbents up for reelection in districts that Shapiro carried in 2022. 

In 2018, the last time President Donald Trump was in office for a midterm election, Democrats successfully flipped five Senate seats. Next year, they would only need to flip two seats, while holding on to State Sen. James Malone’s (D-Lancaster) conservative-leaning district to make it happen.