New Polls Seem to Show Slimmer Leads in Pennsylvania’s Hotly Contested Races

Pennsylvania's Democratic attorney general Josh Shapiro speaks to a crowd during his campaign launch address for Pennsylvania governor, in Pittsburgh. Shapiro, is breaking with Gov. Tom Wolf on the centerpiece of Wolf's plan to fight climate change amid the pushback it has received from influential building trades unions. Shapiro’s statement came as he prepared Wednesday, Oct. 27, 2021 to address union leaders from the pipeline trades who planned to question him about his position. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic, File)

By Ashley Adams

August 26, 2022

Two recently released polls show John Fetterman leading Mehmet Oz for US Senate, and Josh Shapiro ahead of Doug Mastriano for governor, but with slightly smaller leads than the last poll released.

With the November election on the horizon, an increase in polling seems to show narrowing leads in Pennsylvania’s closely watched midterm races for governor and US Senate.

A recent Fox News poll showed Democratic Senate nominee John Fetterman leading Republican opponent Dr. Mehmet Oz by 11 points, and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Josh Shapiro ahead of Republican opponent Doug Mastriano by 10 points.

But two surveys released this week appeared to show a tightening of those margins.

Emerson College in Boston released a poll Thursday that showed Fetterman with a four-point lead over Oz, 48% to 44%. Eight percent were either undecided or would vote for someone else right now. In the governor’s race, the poll found Shapiro leading Mastriano 47% to 44% with 6% undecided and 3% planning to support someone else.

The Trafalgar Group, a Republican polling firm, also released a poll this week and found the same results as the Emerson College poll.

Despite the two polls only showing Fetterman with a four point lead, many more think he’ll be the state’s next US Senator. Fifty-six percent of voters said they expect Fetterman to win, while only 44% expect Oz to win, regardless of whom they support. The same holds true in the governor’s race, with Shapiro expected to win by 57% to Mastriano’s 43%.

Fetteman recently returned to the campaign trail after suffering a stroke in May. Even with a lower public profile, Fetterman’s online trolling of Oz over his supermarket gaffes and murky status as a Pennsylvania resident heightened the already significant skepticism surrounding the celebrity surgeon’s run for office.

Perhaps feeling the heat, a top aide for Oz levied a Donald Trump-like attack on Fetterman this week, mockingly linking Fetterman’s stroke to his diet. Fetterman called the attack “unhinged” and “irresponsible,” and was backed up by more than 100 practicing physicians.

Oz has Trump’s endorsement, but the former president’s confidence in his candidate of choice—if he had any to begin with—appears to be waning. Rolling Stone recently reported that Trump thinks Oz is going to “f-cking lose” unless something drastically changes.

Mastriano has high-profile supporters of his own, fresh off a rally in Pittsburgh which featured a lengthy speech from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

But like Oz, Mastriano has also been the subject of online trolling. He recently touted a poll showing him with a lead over Shapiro. The “poll” was actually a prank by someone claiming to be a high school student, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Trump will be in Pennsylvania next month to rally support for both Oz and Mastriano, calling the candidates part of his “Pennsylvania Trump ticket.”


  • Ashley Adams

    In her 16 years in the communications industry, Ashley Adams has worn many hats, including news reporter, public relations writer, marketing specialist, copy editor and technical writer. Ashley grew up in Berks County and has since returned to her roots to raise her three children.

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