The number of Pennsylvanians in advanced years is projected to jump by 43% in the next decade, a period when the commonwealth’s population overall is expected to contract, according to a new report by state analysts.
These anticipated changes to state demographics reflect declining birth rates and the fact Baby Boomers are starting to enter their 80s, said analysts with the Independent Fiscal Office, a nonpartisan agency that provides guidance to lawmakers.
The report published in October notes that, by 2035, the population of working-age adults is expected to shrink, while the number of older residents who rely on care and support will expand. Policymakers have predicted this shift could strain the state services and stretch healthcare systems that are already suffering from workforce shortages.
What’s the big picture for Pa.’s population?
Overall, the analysts are predicting the Keystone State’s population will hold relatively flat in the next several years, contracting by just 0.1% to about 13 million residents by 2030. They’re expecting it to drop to about 12.9 million in the subsequent five years.
The commonwealth’s population of children and teenagers will fall by nearly 8% in the coming decade, and the number of adults aged 20 to 64 will contract by about 2%, the analysts predict.
Retirees aged 65 to 79 are expected to increase in number over the next five years, but their population will fall by 2035 as the Baby Boomer cohort transitions into their 80s, according to these estimates.
The population of advanced age adults will see the biggest growth in the next decade, increasing by more than 42% from about 668,000 to 953,000, the report predicts.
How are demographic changes different across Pa.?
From 2020 to 2025, the analysts reported, population decreases were most dramatic in parts of rural Pennsylvania. Fayette and Cambria counties lost 4.3% and 3.2% of their populations respectively in that period.
Philadelphia and Allegheny counties have also been losing residents, albeit at slower rates, according to the report.
But some parts of the state have been experiencing growth, particularly suburban communities in eastern Pennsylvania. Pike, Cumberland and Chester counties all saw their populations climb by more than 4% in the past five years, the analysts noted.
